Paul Castran - CEO - Castran Gilbert

In today’s low-interest-rate environment a common question property investors ask is, “What happens if we buy now and interest rates skyrocket, like back in the 1980’s?”

An understandable concern and today’s historically low interest rates can’t be sustained forever because at some point the economy will begin recovering, inflation will grow and rates will rise!

That’s the economy’s cyclical nature for you.

When rates do rise it’s doubtful they’ll hit the dizzying heights of the late 1980s. The major lenders certainly don’t think so; they’re setting their 10year fixed rates about 7per cent.

With vast resources and access to the world’s top economic minds, it’s highly unlikely that major lenders will make the wrong call about the future direction of interest rates.

But for argument’s sake that they do and rates climb back to the heady levels of 20 years ago.

If interest rates go up that far it’s a sign that business and consumer confidence is high. When rates go up so does inflation. And when inflation rises, so do property values. Sure, your holding costs will be higher because of higher interest rates but as an investor you will benefit on three fronts.

High rental returns

First-home buyers won’t be prowling the property market for a buy as it’s less affordable in a high-interest-rate environment. This will keep them in the rental market, put pressure on the available rental accommodation and drive up asking rents. The higher the interest rates the higher the investment yield!

Negative gearing benefits

If your expenditure on the property exceeds your rental income, you’ll be able to soften the impact and increase your cash flow by claiming the difference as a tax deduction.

Substantial sale proceeds

If you can’t afford to hold the property …sell it. Whilst not an ideal scenario, your property will have grown substantially in value during the time of high inflation so you’ll be better off than when you purchased it and that’s the aim of investing!

Home buyers are flocking back to variable rate mortgages which now account for 91% of the residential lending market, their highest proportion in four months.

Mortgage broker Mortgage Choice reported in April basic variable mortgages accounted for 48.15 per cent of all home loans approved - up nearly one per cent from March, while standard variable mortgages comprised 42.77 per cent of the market, down 1.47 per cent from March.

Basic variable loans generally have less loan features than a standard variable loan.

Fixed rate loans accounted for four per cent of all approvals.

Basic variable loans have been the most popular loan type though for the last four months after overtaking standard variable for the first time in January 2009!

Rates charged on variable home loans move in line with interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia which successively cut its overnight cash rate since September last year to a 49-year low!

And despite interest rates being at their lowest in decades, the sensitive global and domestic economic climate is having a strong influence over loan product preferences.

Consumer conservatism with rates and fees continues to win out against loan flexibility and extra features.

Line of credit loans in April, popular with property investors, posted a fall, five per cent down from the previous month.

Commitments for owner-occupied housing rose 4.9 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted, to 59,793, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed this month.

Total housing finance by value rose 6.7 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted, to $20.688 billion, based on the latest data available.

Increasing rents boosted the housing component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by   0.9 per cent for the quarter and the overall annual increase to 5.5 per cent, that’s according to  Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released this week.

The CEO of Real Estate Institute of Australia has said, “The majority of this increase in the housing component was driven by rents, which increased nationally by 1.7 per cent over the quarter and 8.4 per cent over the year. The cities where rents increased the most were Perth and Darwin with annual increases of 10.9 per cent and 13.5 per cent respectively!”

This rent increase in the recent quarter reflects low vacancy rates and the scarcity of rental properties across capital cities, combined with the decrease in building approvals and housing finance for investment.

The National Rental Affordability Scheme should hopefully relieve this figure, however the impact won’t be felt for quite some time.

“With an underlying demand for additional housing at around 200,000 dwellings per year and commencement of new dwellings of 147,000 in 2008, Australia will need to build significantly more homes than what has occurred to meet the rental demand.”

Housing affordability improved since the Reserve Bank rate cuts, although there’s been very little     flow-on benefit to those in the rental market.

“With lower interest rates and greater affordability, now’s the time for those within the rental market to seriously consider purchasing their own home.”